2008 Primaries, Grass Roots Organization • June 10th, 2008

Are McCain’s Wisconsin ground troops MIA?

by Chris Lato

At first blush, this doesn’t sound good.

What has John McCain been doing these past few months? Is an opportunity now lost? Has Barack Obama laid the groundwork for an unstoppable juggernaut of a campaign in Wisconsin?

Hold your horses a moment. In past columns I have discussed the need to have a strong ground game, and the importance of field organization in winning races in Wisconsin. It’s not the sexiest part of the campaign, it doesn’t get much attention, but it is absolutely vital, especially in a battleground state such as ours. And the Trib article suggests McCain is already falling behind.

But consider: in 2004 the Bush campaign started making the same moves on the ground – opening offices, getting staff in place, etc. – at roughly the same time as McCain. George W. came within a few thousand votes of winning the state, with the tightest percentage margin in the nation.

In 2008, some believe McCain’s independent, ‘maverick’ streak positions him to do especially well with independents and Reagan Democrats. Others say it’s not impossible to think McCain can pull off a win, considering the recent Supreme Court victory by Michael Gableman.

The McCain campaign has kept its powder dry. It’s no secret that Obama has enjoyed a fundraising advantage, and it makes sense that Obama has staff already in Wisconsin. He needed a team in place during the primary against Hillary Clinton, for example.

Meanwhile, McCain was only facing Mike Huckabee, whose campaign was already in its death throes anyway. There was no need for McCain to have a comprehensive campaign apparatus in place, as it would have been a waste of resources at that early point.

The moral of the story: it’s not always about how much time you have, but what you do with that time. Something tells me from past experience that these Obama people have done a lot of sitting on their hands in recent months. Obama may have the money to burn, but I know there is a tendency of campaigns to inflate just how busy they are and how strong their presence is. I’m not calling the Obama-aligned folks out as liars…but it’s a game of positioning. My campaign’s bigger than your campaign. If Obama can appear to have a strong tactical advantage, it can lead to articles like the one the Trib wrote. McCain looks hapless, and Obama looks like he already has Wisconsin sewn up.

By the way, all this means absolutely nothing as it pertains to the actual organizing that has to happen on the ground. You can have designated staff scattered throughout the state, but if they haven’t been doing anything of substance for three months, it doesn’t matter. Typically, county parties will be handling the run-up that’s necessary to get ready for a presidential campaign to jump into a state full-force. Right now is the time that a campaign apparatus is needed to manage the ground game, the parades, the calls, the event planning, the preparation for sign dissemination, etc.

In short: the race is far from over. This summer will allow both campaigns to fully illustrate just how ready they are for November. Everything up to this moment is little more than posturing and chest-thumping.

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