2008 Primaries, Branding Politix, Strategic Blueprints • July 1st, 2008

And the best candidate for vice-president is…

by Chris Lato

You’ll never believe this. Or maybe you will. At first blush it seemed ridiculous, but upon reflection it makes some sense.

Colin Powell for Vice President? For BOTH McCain and Obama? This story offers a fascinating, if egg-headed way of reaching this conclusion. His is the one name that hasn’t really been on the radar screen until now. Perhaps Powell paid for the study?

But consider: Powell is seen as a moderate who can work from the middle to achieve consensus. And while he has been tied to GOP administrations and his initial support of the current Iraq war, he offers the ‘elder statesman’ heft that Obama needs, and a moderating influence for those ‘McSame’ critics who believe McCain is little more than a war-monger in the Bush mold. He’d be a pretty strong pick for either one, if you believe (as I do) that the VP choice matters more in the 2008 cycle than it has in the past.

Interestingly, this story surfaces as the debate rages over the degree to which McCain should discuss and campaign on his military service record. Wesley Clark took McCain to task, and now Obama is backpedaling while the GOP lines up in a massive fit of outrage.

I remind you only of this: four years ago, if memory serves, the military service records of our presidential candidates was a pretty darn big deal. Remember the howls from the left about President Bush’s service in the National Guard while John Kerry was in Vietnam? Remember how Kerry proclaimed he was “reporting for duty” at the 2004 national convention? Hmm. I guess certain political experts are counting on the voting public to have a short memory about these things. But I digress.

Back to the VP-picking: Will anyone choose Colin Powell? Nah. He’s probably not interested. But it’s fun to ponder these notions of a dream ticket, and how things like ego trip up notions of a perfect pairing of candidates.

Just like Obama won’t pick Hillary for VP, and McCain is said to be weighing whether he can stomach Mitt Romney as a running mate (seems like a long-shot to me, but that would be a pretty strong ticket), this is the kind of prognosticating that we can - and probably will – be doing right up to national convention time.

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2008 Primaries, Leadership, Messaging, Views on News • June 5th, 2008

Well, duh

by Chris Lato

Not to beat a dead horse, but if you needed more evidence that Barack Obama doesn’t want Hillary Clinton as his VP, here you go.

I have said before that an Obama-Clinton ticket would be awfully tough to beat – but that it isn’t going to happen for a variety of reasons.

It’s not just the Clinton finances, though – it’s also the years of Clinton baggage and Obama’s fairly obvious desire to be his own leader and not have the Clintons looking over his shoulder and potentially starting slash-and-burn campaigns when they don’t like how President Obama is handling things.

More importantly, consider the message sent if Sen. Obama were to select Sen. Clinton. The Clintons represent the past – Obama says he’s looking to the future. Wouldn’t that be something of a contradiction, going back to the bad old days of divisiveness and scandal, to have the Clintons back in the White House? I think Team Obama is smart enough to know that. Luckily, Team Obama has all sorts of reasons to smack down talk of a ‘dream ticket.’

There’s also the bitterness – the divide within the Democratic Party that one senses will be extremely difficult to repair. Robert Novak writes of the sense among Democrat women that 2008 was their time to shine – and that they were denied yet again. Race and gender disputes are bubbling under the surface. It threatens to erupt in outright ugliness.

It is an open question whether the party can heal itself in time to rally ‘round Obama in November. Much like John McCain has to woo conservatives back to the tent, Obama now has to figure out how to navigate the minefield of simultaneously embracing Clinton, distancing himself from the VP talk, and uniting a fiercely divided Democratic Party.

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2008 Primaries, Branding Politix, Buttons, Messaging • June 2nd, 2008

Cha-ching!

by Chris Lato

Once the ‘Holy cow! $200 million!’ shock wears off, what does this tell us?

First off, for all the talk about new ways of executing political communication (social media, internet, Facebook, you name it) TV is still king, far and away. If you want to catch a lot of attention and eyeballs, it is still the way to go if you have the dough.

But money isn’t enough. John McCain was outspent roughly three-to-one by Mitt Romney, and look who’s still standing. Sometimes all the marketing money in the world won’t get voters to buy what you’re selling – especially if your message is garbled and you have failed to define yourself, what you stand for and why you are running.

And, what a mind-blowing number for the Democrats. All this over a battle for the nomination that has been great fun to watch, yet has allowed John McCain to run his campaign unscathed by Democrat attacks for months. Admittedly, if the Dem nominee will have this level of support at his disposal, McCain will be pelted with a non-stop barrage of attack ads any time now.

Despite the $46 million spent by the Hillary Clinton campaign, the study points out that in a number of key states Barack Obama still had the airwaves all to himself for a significant period of time – and made his biggest gains for a two-week stretch in February. Pure tactical outmaneuvering, coupled with the means to make some big buys, that helped move the needle in Obama’s direction.

Get ready, Wisconsin – the political airwave war in the Battleground Badger State is about to get underway….

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2008 Primaries, Branding Politix, Messaging • May 29th, 2008

The pros and cons of ‘going negative’

by Chris Lato

Readers of this blog know I don’t agree with the notion of ‘negative’ campaign ads being, well, negative - particularly if they are addressing an opponent’s record. Calling attention to, and criticizing an opponent’s record, whether it be a vote in Congress, a statement to a reporter, or a lack of pertinent experience, it’s all fair game in my view.

That’s why this article from the Harvard Business School intrigued me. The author breaks down the ‘negative’ ads being fired by the Hillary Clinton campaign at Barack Obama and makes a case for why political ads use this tactic while B2B ads typically do not.

One partial quote did jump out at me – referring to “…Obama trying to stay positive and clinging to the moral high ground by staying positive…” Unless you’re an ardent Hillary supporter, Obama is the clear front-runner. He’s running on the ‘moral superiority’ platform – that is, his campaign would have you believe Obama is above petty politics. It’s a new day in America, etc. It sounds almost….Reaganesque.

Everyone’s buying it for now, but will it last? Once this race tightens up, and it will, can Obama resist jumping on the ‘negative’ campaign bandwagon? For example, John McCain has a long, long record of votes in the Senate that will be prime fodder for attacks. And that is fine. McCain should have to defend his record and Obama will undoubtedly begin to take aim, as he should.

And ironically, McCain’s own leadership role on campaign finance ‘reform,’ working in concert with our own Senator Russ Feingold, could be McCain’s undoing. Third party independent spending has grown exponentially thanks to this ‘reform,’ and while McCain will undoubtedly benefit from some of that spending, he will also be the target of the George Soros types who will spend untold millions ripping McCain up and down right up to Election Day.

In other words, Obama could potentially stay largely above the fray while the ‘independent’ groups tear McCain to shreds. And they will.

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WISPUNDITS MEDIA ALERT! Listen to Wisconsin Public Radio tomorrow morning from 8-9 AM to enjoy yours truly discussing “The Week in Review.” And if you feel compelled to call in, make sure to tell ‘em Wispundits sent ya.

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2008 Primaries, Views on News • May 23rd, 2008

The summer of Dem discontent approaches

by Chris Lato

To everyone who wrote off Hillary Clinton (me included) – this story will give you pause and then make you wonder how the Dems will get out of this fine mess they’ve gotten themselves into.

Can some of the same folks who argued in 2000 that Al Gore should have been president because he won the popular vote turn around eight years later and argue that the popular vote doesn’t matter? Will Florida be disenfranchised yet again?The mind reels.

First, Hillary has to deliver as the article suggests she can. Also, the goofiness of the Florida and Michigan votes will have to play a role.

But really, this just muddies the waters even more. And with Barack Obama flailing around, trying to find his way on foreign policy and showing off his relative inexperience, this promises to be a long, hot summer for the Democratic Party.

The Obama story, in particular, illustrates the dangers of sounding off without thinking first, without having the facts in front of you, without noting that your answer is a work in progress, something to indicate your concern but that a more complete answer will be forthcoming. The snowball just keeps rolling downhill, getting bigger and bigger till it rolls right over you.

But in an age where admitting a mistake is tantamount to political suicide, and a soundbite can sink a campaign, what other choice does Obama have?

Actually, it can be done but it requires strict message discipline and a willingness to step up and admit, at the very least, that Obama didn’t fully form his initial answer(s). Acknowledge the issue is more complex than a simple yes-or-no answer, past statements may have been misconstrued, and that American interests would of course be protected when meeting with foreign leaders who have the potential or interest in doing America any sort of harm. The end goal is always peace and prosperity for all, but the concerns of America and its allies will always come first.

Or something like that.

That won’t get away from the questions that continue to linger, including Obama’s support of the ridiculous notion of unconditional meetings with unfriendly foreign leaders, but at least it starts pointing Obama in the right direction. It gives him room to keep developing his answer and gain some ground.

Obama intended to pander to the members of the Bush-bashing left who view the president as a dim-bulb cowboy - but Obama overreached and will now have to pay the price for that short-sightedness and naivete.

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2008 Primaries, Views on News • May 15th, 2008

When lefties attack!

by Chris Lato

OK, he was really funny in ‘Fast Times at Ridgemont High.’ ‘Mystic River’ was a good one, too. And if you haven’t seen ‘At Close Range,’ you should check that one out.

Sean Penn is undeniably talented as an actor. He’s also undeniably a Grade-A jerk, and it seems he is going after some of his own.

Not sure what prompted this outburst at the Cannes Film Festival (Too much red wine? Food poisoning from a bad baguette?). And I would love to know particulars about what Penn considers to be part of Barack Obama’s ‘phenomenally inhuman and unconstitutional’ voting record.

As John Travolta said in ‘Pulp Fiction,’ “That’s a bold statement.”

Penn gets respect in some quarters of the mainstream press. ‘Rolling Stone,’ for example, treats the guy like some sort of left-wing avenging angel for The Sins of President Bush. He is listened to, and his opinions ‘matter.’

But this is no way to help your team win, Sean – unless you’re really pulling for Nader this year.

This is but a small example of the rifts that exist within the Democratic Party – rifts that Democrats always seem to have trouble with keeping quiet and in-house. This year, obviously, the rifts have become more pronounced than ever. How will this party be able to unite with summer around the corner, the general election coming up fast and Hillary Clinton still haunting the party like the Ghost of Scandals Past? (I kid, I kid!)

The self-destructive tendencies of the national Democratic Party are a big plus for John McCain. Howard Dean and the rest of the DNC crew have their work cut out for them – even more than McCain, who is working to find the sweet spot between conservatives, moderate Democrats, independents and everyone else.

It’s been said before that the DNC has an uncanny knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It remains to be seen whether they’ve learned their lesson, but right now the Magic 8-Ball says “All Signs Point to No.”

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2008 Primaries, Views on News • May 7th, 2008

The Empire Strikes Barack

by Chris Lato

This is funny and very creative stuff that is worth watching all the way through. If you’re into “Star Wars,” and have the good taste to believe “Empire” is the best of the series, then you’ll enjoy this even more.

Yes, it’s very pro-Obama, but what the heck. Funny is funny. It may also be the last time we need to acknowledge Hillary Clinton as a force to be reckoned with.

After the results from Indiana and North Carolina Tuesday, what does it all mean? For starters, Clinton’s argument for why she is still in the race is now much, much weaker. There is still a path to the nomination for her, but it is twisted, muddy and treacherous. Near-miracles would have to occur at this point. Even the Drudge Report’s big headline on Wednesday read THE NOMINEE under a pic of Obama. But she’s still in it for the time being, so maybe she knows something we don’t.

So….put aside partisan leanings for a moment and ask yourself: Obama vs. McCain. Who ya got?

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2008 Primaries, Leadership, Messaging • April 28th, 2008

The Bill Clinton legacy

by Chris Lato

This article crystallized some thoughts I’ve had about whether Bill Clinton is wrecking his legacy with his behavior on the campaign trail in support of Hillary’s run for President.

It’s clear he is really bitter, feels he hasn’t gotten his due as a ‘great’ President, and feels he was shafted by the press. That has all built up and now, in the heat of another campaign, Bill Clinton is letting loose and showing some of that famous temper.

But what about his legacy within the Democratic Party? Will the Clinton ‘scorched earth’ policy of campaigning mean he’ll have a lot fewer friends left, assuming likely nominee Barack Obama ascends to the throne? Or will everyone have a short memory about these things if all goes well for the Dems in November?

Because this race is going down to the wire, and is historic for a number of reasons, it will almost certainly be one for the books, a race that is talked about for decades to come. That cannot bode well for the Clintons.

Presidents care about their legacies. Richard Nixon went to great lengths to beef up his foreign-policy bona fides after his shameful exit from office. Jimmy Carter’s spectacularly mediocre tenure has been buffed up somewhat by his activities for Habitat for Humanity - although he still steps in it on a regular basis – just Google ‘Jimmy Carter Hamas.’ The whole Iran hostage thing must still chafe him because he’s busy trying to prove he can broker peace in the Middle East – and to hell with anyone who tries to tell him otherwise.

Ronald Reagan gradually disappeared from the public eye, due more to illness and the fierce determination by his handlers to protect the Reagan Legacy. Then there’s Bush 41, who recently scored points by pairing up with Bill Clinton to raise money for tsunami relief efforts. He also parachuted out of airplanes, in addition to racking up huge speaking fees.

Bill Clinton is making a post-Presidential mint, which is his prerogative. He raked in more than $80 million from book and speech income, according to the Clintons’ 2000-06 tax records.

In the wake of 2008’s bitter campaign, will the Clinton legacy be irreparably dented?

Put it this way. If we are all watching the comings and goings of President Obama a year from now, Bill Clinton will continue to fade away while his own legacy should remain relatively intact. He will still be a force. But unless Obama chooses to involve the Clintons in some meaningful way, a lot of pain is going to linger for a long time to come, and you can’t count on Bill Clinton to keep his thoughts to himself.

And really, at this point, Bill Clinton’s own worst enemy is himself - not the press or the vast right-wing conspiracy.

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2008 Primaries, Leadership, Views on News • April 3rd, 2008

Filling the silly season void

by Chris Lato

Some random musings, as there’s a big lull in national political coverage right now, with everyone waiting to see what the next round of primaries will bring.

With that lull comes the usual silly-season stuff: who will John McCain pick as a running mate? (At this point, who knows? Certainly not John McCain.) Will Al Gore sneak into the 2008 Presidential contest and save the Democratic Party (and by extension, The World As We Know It)?

And this story, while not surprising, offers more insight into the, shall we say, insistent behavior of Sen. Hillary Clinton and the former president.

Meanwhile, the Dems are worried, with good reason, about the image being conveyed by all this bitter in-fighting. As the thinking goes, if the party can’t unite and show decisive leadership, how can they lead the nation? Howard Dean gets a lot of credit for turning around the financial situation of his party, but if the presidential nomination thing crashes and burns in front of a national audience, he will have to take the hit.

And, for the truly geeky among us, check out this article that presents a scenario in which Clinton could win the popular vote in the primary. Some people truly have too much time on their hands.

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Leadership, Speeches, Views on News • March 25th, 2008

Oops!

by Chris Lato

Wow, Hillary Clinton really stepped in it this time. This video is positively damning.

I have no idea what Senator Clinton was thinking when she made these claims, but in a race this tight you have no margin for error - especially the kind of error that can be easily fact-checked.

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